Speculation Kills

Conference expansion is all about money, no matter how you look at it.  Hell, when you’re trying to make some cash you’ll do anything short of dancing in a G-string to make the extra dollar—and if you would dance in a G-string, more power to you. When it comes down to it, almost everything in life boils down to money—yes, even college football. Money, money, money.

College football conference expansion is the constant talk among the sport’s fans—and it comes at a time where there’s nothing else to talk about—sorry, I have no interest in sports as soon as the NBA Finals finish, hockey just isn’t my thing.

The problem is, I spend all day worrying about what happens to Utah as soon as the dust is settled with conference expansion.

My good friend and pigskin talking buddy, Dave Mundt, put it the best way possible: “I’m more worried about this (conference expansion) than my girlfriend and mine’s relationship failing.”

Honestly, Mundt hammered the nail with this statement. It’s ridiculous how much time anyone following the conference expansion talk thinks about the matter, I know for a fact I’m not the only one.

It baffles me to think the PAC-10 and Big 12 would discuss partnership possibilities not too long ago, and now talk about picking through their conference and taking everything worthwhile from beneath them. Supposedly, the PAC-10 is looking to extend offers to Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado—like I said, everything worthwhile.

If the PAC-10 pulled in all six teams and the Big Ten pulled in Missouri and Nebraska, the Big 12 would be left with four teams—Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State—remember, the Big Ten was previously rumored to have offered Missouri and Nebraska.

A Big 12 with four schools is like roadkill waiting for vultures to clean up the mess that just happened.

Sure, the Mountain West Conference could pick up the leftovers and add them to their conference, that’s if they can beat the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big East to them.

If Utah is left looking from the outside in, Utes football might become irrelevant to college football while college football drastically changes to four super-conferences that take over. Four super-conferences could become it’s own level of college football, above Division I football—leaving out all the outsiders.

However, all of this seems too ridiculous to me. What it comes down to is the fact people speculate way too much on the conference expansion and all of a sudden an idea becomes an actual action—without the idea ever being confirmed or acted on. Possibilities become concrete and any option becomes the solution.

I believe every conference has an ideal plan of what they want to consist of and how they will react when the dominoes start to fall. You might wonder why the conferences haven’t pushed over the first domino yet—I believe it is because each conference wants to know what everyone’s plans are before acting. If the PAC-10 was going to honestly pursue Texas because it brings in the most money, they should be keeping it as quiet as possible.

Texas is in a position that it could do whatever it wants—the SEC, Big Ten, and PAC-10 are all rumored to chase Texas. The problem is, Texas makes a ton of money in the Big 12 and are treated very generously—there’s no way they would just walk away from that. The Big 12 has unequal revenue sharing, which allows Texas to get the biggest piece of the pie.

There’s no way the PAC-10 is going to gain Texas if they can’t give a bigger piece of pie. Every member of the PAC-10 would have to agree to receive a lesser share in order to get Texas on board. Texas isn’t going to just bail on the Big 12 so they can make less money and be further from it’s opponents—which costs even more with travel expenses.

Likewise, the Big 12 will not openly allow Texas to just walk out the door. The Big 12 will do whatever it takes to keep Texas, they do it now so why would it change?

If the PAC-10 offers those six schools, I believe it is a bluff—and nothing more. I believe the PAC-10 is trying to stir the pot and get other conferences to react, that way the picture of what could be possible becomes clearer.

Once an official offer is on the table from one of the big six conferences, the dust storm will start and it will take a while for the dust to settle. It will be a big chain reaction and the college football landscape will change, and it will change fast. I do not believe the super-conferences are going to happen quite yet, I see each conference moving to championship games first—getting to the NCAA’s 12-team requirement. That will be the first shift in college football we will see, and then in about ten years we will all be holding onto the edge of our seats again for the same old rollercoaster.

Hopefully when this rollercoaster ride starts Utah fans will be anxious to see who is joining their soon-to-be super-conference.  

Chances for Utah’s move to the PAC-10 are still high, and I’m still in the camp Utah will be headed to the PAC-10—and of course, I’m still comfortable.