Pac-10 Move Has Its Good and Bad

While Utah will reap the many benefits from their recent decision to jump to the Pac-10, but it's not all golden in the new conference.

Don't get me wrong, it is absolute that the move is what's best for Utah, but it's not flawless.

Since there are only a few negatives that could come as result, let's get those at of the way first. 

The Holy War, the rivalry football game between Utah and Brigham Young University, has been around since 1922—the basketball teams have met even longer, 1909. However, the longstanding rivalry could begin to fade away because of different conference affiliation. With little to win and much to lose, Utah would be smart to avoid a yearly game against their longtime rivals. The rivalry has been around for years and I believe it will be missed, but it's for the best—no sense in playing a team for nearly nothing.

Although I am entirely confident they will be able to immediately compete in Pac-10 play, the Utes will face much tougher competition in their new conference—the perfect seasons under their belt will be much more difficult to come by. Joining the Pac-10 will mean playing powerhouse teams, and while I do believe they can compete, it will take greater effort to make a great season. 

Now this can go either way, but increased travel distance will affect the road game attendance—for better or worse. Sure, road trips to California and Phoenix are more desirable than those to Colorado Springs, Colorado and Laramie, Wyoming, but they are also more expensive. Utah's new conference affiliation will make it a longer drive or flight, and will be a heavier hit on the wallet's of fans. However, fans may be more likely to travel to watch their team play against top-tier programs, rather than to Wyoming. If fans are willing to take the trip, road attendance will jump higher—like I said, it could go either way. 

The best thing that will come from the move is respect—something Utah has been yearning for a while now. Due to Utah's recent success, they have become a more respected program, but are still considered a mid-major school that plays "nobody" in the eyes of many fans. With the opportunity to play in the "conference of champions," Utah could find itself the nation's elite programs. Respect is close for the Utes and now all they have to do is earn it—easier with a Pac-10 affiliation.

Money, money, money. It's always about money. Utah's move to the Pac-10 will bring in a huge increase of revenue. Utah made $1.2 million in TV revenue last year, but could up that amount by over $10 million.

With a skyrocket in revenue, the Utes can look to stadium expansion. Currently, Rice-Eccles Stadium holds 45,017 people, but plans to expand the stadium could boost that number to anywhere between 60 and 70 thousand fans. 

Access to the Rose Bowl year in and year out will be nice for Utah, and an undefeated season spells out more than just a BCS bowl. If the Utes drop a game or two, or any amount for that matter, all it would take is winning the conference to play for the roses. 

Utah recruiting should see a bump with their new conference affiliation. Coming off its best recruiting class in school history, the Utes are already finding their 2011 class to be full of talent. It will be much easier to keep the in-state prospects that have been lost to schools of BCS affiliation in the past. Utah's recruiting competition with BYU should be easier as well, considering they will have the edge due to its conference affiliation alone. It will be hard for BYU recruiters to look a kid in the eye and get him to commit over Utah, when that same kid is being told by Utah recruiters of shots at the national title—the Utes could have top-dog status in college football, making it much easier to land studs out of high school.

There are many reasons why Utah's move to the Pac-10 is beneficial, and they will begin to feel those gains as soon as 2011 comes around.

A Day To Remember

What could be the biggest accomplishment in Utah Utes history, came today as Utah President Michael K. Young signed papers to join the Pac-10.

The roller coaster is over ladies and gentleman, exit on your left. The Utes have officially joined the "conference of champions."

As President Young picked up the pen to ink the deal, he joked "I have been authorized by board of trustees to sign this to accept. Should I?"

And just like that, the Utes overcame years of mid-major status. 

The Utes have become the twelfth member of the Pac-10, and joins Colorado as the league's newest members since 1978, when the conference added Arizona and Arizona State. 

Utah is a good fit academically, athletically and geographically, said Larry Scott, Pac-10 commissioner. 

It is a possible option that the Utes become a member of the South division of the conference, which could be made up with Utah, Colorado, USC, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona.

The Utes will begin Pac-10 play in 2011, and will endure a three-year process before becoming a full member of the Pac-10—being a full member will give Utes access to revenue. On the other hand, Colorado's agreement does not require them to go through the same process. 

"It's a great day to be a Ute," President Young said. 

Why Utah to the Pac-10 is a Done Deal

Today was the most telling day of all amongst conference football expansion talk. Nebraska to the Big Ten and Boise State to the Mountain West are the two latest dominoes to fall and four more Big 12 schools are expected to follow as early as Tuesday. Will Utah make a move as well?—I definitely believe so.

Why the Pac-10 Will Expand More

There is no way the Pac-10 is done expanding after only adding Colorado, so it's more than safe to say they have plans to further expansion. The Pac-10 wants to get to at least 12 teams—giving them a conference championship game. With an expiring TV contract, the Pac-10 is looking to do everything they can to bring in the biggest moneymaking deal possible.

Expansion to 12 teams would spell success for the Pac-10, but with all the ideas of super-conferences forming the Pac-10 is likely to get a head start on other conferences and grow to 16 teams.

Who the Pac-10 Will Take

At the moment, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are believed to all make the jump to the Pac-10 by Tuesday. Texas A&M was originally believed to be joined at the hip with Texas, but now it seems there will be separation as Texas A&M seems more interested in the SEC than the Pac-10—sorry Big 12, you're gone. 

If the talk of Texas A&M's interest in the SEC holds true along with the SEC having interest in the school, expect Texas A&M to bail on its dancing partner, Texas. 

The Pac-10 likes the idea of pairing off teams as rivals, and Utah could be the answer for Colorado. Utah is geographically fit to play in the Pac-10 and naturally pairs with Colorado to develop a rivalry. Texas and Texas Tech pair as rivals, as well as Oklahoma and Oklahoma State—of course every team can have more than one rival, I wouldn't expect the Red River Rivalry to dry up anytime soon. 

Utah is also a perfect fit because it would round out a potential division for the new super-conference. Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech would be a division that makes complete sense. The division would be geographically logical and pair up the rivalries—I know Utah fans would be excited to see Texas and Oklahoma play at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

When It Will Go Down

The Pac-10 began expansion Thursday by announcing Colorado as its newest member. Friday the Pac-10 watched the MWC add Boise State and the Big Ten add Nebraska. The Pac-10 watched speculation on Texas A&M's interest in the SEC, and noticed the interest from the SEC to add them. The news came that Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State would announce as early as Tuesday their plans to join the Pac-10. 

But when does the Pac-10 invite Utah? I believe they will announce the Utes as the newest member in the next 72 hours. If I had to pinpoint a day, I would say Monday—the day before the Pac-10 announces four Big 12 schools as new members, their final move on expansion.

Friday's news is information that becomes forgotten, Monday's news sets up the rest of the week's talk—it's how the media works for the most part. Expect at the very least, Utah to join Monday, then the big splash will follow.

Why Utah to the Pac-10 Seems a "Done Deal"

During the most exciting week of conference expansion, Utah athletic director, Chris Hill found himself on vacation—perhaps to get away and relax. 

Hill came back from vacation and supposedly is aware of a Pac-10 invite for Utah. This would make sense because there is no reason why Hill should take backseat to the thought of being left out of conference expansion—especially when a few months ago everything seemed absolute. 

I find it very telling that there is discussion and rumors of the Pac-10 inviting only four more Big 12 schools, bringing them to 15 schools—if elementary school taught me anything, 15 is an uneven number. They will look to add one more school, and Utah is the best option left.

Utah is competitive in the aspects of athletics, academics, research, and brings a decent TV market. 

Watching Boise State's press conference Friday, I noticed a little "big whoop" attitude—thanks to my buddy Jake, who asked me to pay attention to the animosity of Robert Kustra, BSU President. It seemed they were excited to join the MWC, but didn't act like it was going to be the best thing in the world.

While discussing scheduling, Boise State athletic director, Gene Bleymaier talked about the schools they played 30 years ago and compared them to the schools they will play starting in 2011.

"BYU, TCU, (pause) Utah, and Air Force," Bleymaier said. The pause in the statement wasn't very long, but it was long enough that you could tell Utah's departure was forthcoming. A team like Utah should have been spit out much quicker, and not behind BYU and TCU—probably not even in the same sentence as Air Force. 

Also, the phone interview with MWC commisioner, Craig Thompson, told a lot if you listened to his voice. It seemed Thompson was glad to have Boise join, but it seemed like he didn't care too much. If you ask me, Boise is a replacement for Utah and the MWC will look other places to expand—making Boise like Colorado and Nebraska, just the beginning of the shift. 

Prediction For PAC-10 Expansion

There are countless options as to who the Pac-10 could add to build a bigger and better conference, and the first school has been added. 

With Nebraska going to the Big Ten and Colorado to the Pac-10, conference expansion as we know it has begun. But there are still numerous questions as to how the college football landscape will look when all is said and done. 

Does the Pac-10 add five more Big 12 schools? Do they add Utah and four Big 12 schools? Do they add only Utah and call it quits at 12 teams? Do they stop after adding only Colorado? 

The answer is unknown and will stay that way for now—at least until tomorrow, when things can shake up all over again. 

If I had to make my boldest prediction as to what happens with the Pac-10 next, I would guess they add Utah, followed by four Big 12 schools. 

I believe the Pac-10 added Colorado to stop Texas from being in the driver's seat and calling all the shots—like insisting an addition of unwanted Texas Tech and Baylor. 

If the Pac-10 wants complete control of expansion, the conference should add Utah next—leaving four spots for expansion.

If the Pac-10 adds Utah, they will have successfully reached the team requirement for a conference championship game, which will be attractive to any TV deal the conference might look into. 

With four spots left, the Pac-10 should extend offers to Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

The addition of these six teams brings in natural rivals and is perfect for the conference split of divisions.

Colorado and Utah, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and Texas and Texas A&M all pair off as rivalries. Add Arizona and Arizona State and the Pac-10 is looking at one of its two divisions. 

By adding Utah first, the Pac-10 gives Texas no way to drag unwanted Baylor and Texas Tech to the conference.

I expect the next domino to fall soon with Utah being invited.

Let The Rollercoaster Do Its Thing

He says this, they say that, we think this, you think that--it's a never-ending rollercoaster ride of denials and admittances. Yes, I'm talking about all the discussion of conference expansion and its constant change of direction. Through all the ups and downs of the idea of a shifting college football landscape, people are left confused as to what they can believe anymore. 

Where will Utah find itself when the dust of college football expansion settles? Man, I wish I could tell you.

For Ute fans who follow conference expansion religiously there has been moments of celebration for Utah joining the PAC-10, but there has also been those moments where everyone reaches for the panic button in fear of being shut out of the conference realignment.

At one point in time, Utah to the PAC-10 was imminent--it was a done deal with no questions asked. It was only a matter of time before the Utah Utes would find themselves among the elite conferences in college football. But now, nearly everyone finds themselves checking Twitter, message boards, Google-searching expansion news, and talking to any "inside" source they may have to get the low-down on what is about to change college football as we know it. 

In wake of the rumors of the PAC-10 reaching out to six Big 12 schools to bring the NCAA a new PAC-16, Utah fans find themselves on either the pessimistic or optimistic sides of the fence. 

If the PAC-10 were to offer six invites to schools from the Big 12, assuming each school accepts, Utah will face a similar situation of being left out of the big picture.

When it comes down to it, like almost everything in this world, it's all about money. If the PAC-10 could bring in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech, we would be looking at our first super-conference in the PAC-16. However, if all holds true in the "everything is about money" argument, Utah just might be on the outside looking in.

However, I find it hard to believe that current PAC-10 teams are going to accept the idea of Texas joining the conference and calling every shot by barking orders. If the PAC-10 is bringing in three Texas schools--possibly four if Baylor gets the nod rather than Colorado--the PAC-10 would be insane. Utah brings a decent TV market into the picture, not to forget its higher level of academics and athletic competition than some of the supposedly invited schools mentioned above.

At this point, it seems everyone has a source that says one thing or another, but nothing has yet been confirmed. Chip Brown, with OrangeBloods.com and the most followed reporter on expansion talk as of lately, seems to have the answers and inside information on everything expansion related, but as soon as he releases information it is almost instantly denied. Brown could be telling the truth, he could be receiving false information, he could be given information from Texas officials that is Texas' view, or everything he is saying could be true--we won't know the answer until all is said and done. 

An inside source could give Brown information, knowing he will relay the ideas to thousands of readers, but that doesn't necessarily mean it has one-hundred percent truth to it. Granted, most of the things he says is backed up by other reports, but how often is a report Brown gives denied and claimed as incorrect? Almost every time. 

The bottom line is that the next few days will bring answers or at least clear the picture just a little more--satisfying some, but disappointing others.

Hang on for the rollercoaster and please keep all hands and feet inside the ride at all times--the last thing we need is more confusion.

With all that has gone on in the past few days, it seems anything can happen and no one can be trusted except the people making the decisions themselves. Until an official announcement is made, the rollercoaster ride will continue.

Let the Dust Settle

Amidst all the conference realignment, everything that happens has a reason for it. The latest news that the Mountain West Conference will not extend an invite to Boise State may seem absurd, but of course there has to be reason for it.

I believe the MWC is smart in not inviting BSU to the conference at this time. Yes, Boise is a good addition—they most definitely add a more competitive edge to the conference and bring the Utes closer to being a part of an automatic qualifier conference. However, the timing of an invite is slightly off.

If the PAC-10 does expand to 16 teams, it is a likely result from the Big 12 falling apart because of the Big Ten snatching Missouri and Nebraska from the Big 12. If this were the case, the Big 12 would have some leftovers—scraps of teams that could generate more money for the MWC. The MWC could add Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor/Colorado—all schools that bring more money to the conference and also brings the MWC to being able to add a conference championship game.

It’s fair enough to say the MWC is interested in seeing where the dust settles before extending, more like settling, for BSU. If the Big 12 stays intact, then the MWC would offer BSU, it makes too much sense. If the Big 12 falls apart, the MWC would look to clean up the leftovers from the Big 12.

Craig Thompson has said there will be continuation on the topic of conference expansion sometime between June 15 and June 30—a time period where I believe conference expansion will be a little clearer.

On June 11, Nebraska and Missouri need to give the Big 12 their plans for where they plan to be in a couple years from now as far as conference affiliation. Shortly after the June 11 mark, the MWC will be revisiting the issue—with a better knowledge of what to expect out of the mess of conference realignment.

If all goes well for Ute fans, Notre Dame will realize its need to join a conference, and will do so by joining the Big Ten. Notre Dame joining the Big Ten would mean the conference has no desire to expand further, meaning Nebraska and Missouri will be in the Big 12. If the two schools remain in the Big 12, the PAC-10’s plans to invite half the teams in the Big 12 would be off. The PAC-10 will then be revisiting the original scenario, the original plan, of adding Colorado and Utah.

The MWC is holding out to see what will be taken from their conference, as well as what teams could be added to the conference amidst the mayhem.

Texas has made it clear they would like to stay in the Big 12, and all they need to do is convince other Big 12 schools to do the same. Currently Texas is our best friend and worst enemy.

There is a lot of bluffing going on right now, and the puzzle is almost solved. Until then, hold on to your seats—things are about to get crazy. 

Speculation Kills

Conference expansion is all about money, no matter how you look at it.  Hell, when you’re trying to make some cash you’ll do anything short of dancing in a G-string to make the extra dollar—and if you would dance in a G-string, more power to you. When it comes down to it, almost everything in life boils down to money—yes, even college football. Money, money, money.

College football conference expansion is the constant talk among the sport’s fans—and it comes at a time where there’s nothing else to talk about—sorry, I have no interest in sports as soon as the NBA Finals finish, hockey just isn’t my thing.

The problem is, I spend all day worrying about what happens to Utah as soon as the dust is settled with conference expansion.

My good friend and pigskin talking buddy, Dave Mundt, put it the best way possible: “I’m more worried about this (conference expansion) than my girlfriend and mine’s relationship failing.”

Honestly, Mundt hammered the nail with this statement. It’s ridiculous how much time anyone following the conference expansion talk thinks about the matter, I know for a fact I’m not the only one.

It baffles me to think the PAC-10 and Big 12 would discuss partnership possibilities not too long ago, and now talk about picking through their conference and taking everything worthwhile from beneath them. Supposedly, the PAC-10 is looking to extend offers to Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado—like I said, everything worthwhile.

If the PAC-10 pulled in all six teams and the Big Ten pulled in Missouri and Nebraska, the Big 12 would be left with four teams—Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State—remember, the Big Ten was previously rumored to have offered Missouri and Nebraska.

A Big 12 with four schools is like roadkill waiting for vultures to clean up the mess that just happened.

Sure, the Mountain West Conference could pick up the leftovers and add them to their conference, that’s if they can beat the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big East to them.

If Utah is left looking from the outside in, Utes football might become irrelevant to college football while college football drastically changes to four super-conferences that take over. Four super-conferences could become it’s own level of college football, above Division I football—leaving out all the outsiders.

However, all of this seems too ridiculous to me. What it comes down to is the fact people speculate way too much on the conference expansion and all of a sudden an idea becomes an actual action—without the idea ever being confirmed or acted on. Possibilities become concrete and any option becomes the solution.

I believe every conference has an ideal plan of what they want to consist of and how they will react when the dominoes start to fall. You might wonder why the conferences haven’t pushed over the first domino yet—I believe it is because each conference wants to know what everyone’s plans are before acting. If the PAC-10 was going to honestly pursue Texas because it brings in the most money, they should be keeping it as quiet as possible.

Texas is in a position that it could do whatever it wants—the SEC, Big Ten, and PAC-10 are all rumored to chase Texas. The problem is, Texas makes a ton of money in the Big 12 and are treated very generously—there’s no way they would just walk away from that. The Big 12 has unequal revenue sharing, which allows Texas to get the biggest piece of the pie.

There’s no way the PAC-10 is going to gain Texas if they can’t give a bigger piece of pie. Every member of the PAC-10 would have to agree to receive a lesser share in order to get Texas on board. Texas isn’t going to just bail on the Big 12 so they can make less money and be further from it’s opponents—which costs even more with travel expenses.

Likewise, the Big 12 will not openly allow Texas to just walk out the door. The Big 12 will do whatever it takes to keep Texas, they do it now so why would it change?

If the PAC-10 offers those six schools, I believe it is a bluff—and nothing more. I believe the PAC-10 is trying to stir the pot and get other conferences to react, that way the picture of what could be possible becomes clearer.

Once an official offer is on the table from one of the big six conferences, the dust storm will start and it will take a while for the dust to settle. It will be a big chain reaction and the college football landscape will change, and it will change fast. I do not believe the super-conferences are going to happen quite yet, I see each conference moving to championship games first—getting to the NCAA’s 12-team requirement. That will be the first shift in college football we will see, and then in about ten years we will all be holding onto the edge of our seats again for the same old rollercoaster.

Hopefully when this rollercoaster ride starts Utah fans will be anxious to see who is joining their soon-to-be super-conference.  

Chances for Utah’s move to the PAC-10 are still high, and I’m still in the camp Utah will be headed to the PAC-10—and of course, I’m still comfortable.